The Maine Senate race between Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson is about as close as a contest can get. With Election Day on November 3, the latest polls show a tie or a two-point edge for Jackson, and forecasters rate it a toss-up that could help decide control of the Senate.
Key facts (as of October 2026)
- Marist’s October 22–25 survey had Jackson at 49% and Collins at 47%; Fox News and Trafalgar polls taken the same week showed a tie, according to RealClearPolling.
- Of all the Republican Senate seats up this year, Maine’s is the only one in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, Ballotpedia notes.
- Maine elects its US senators with ranked-choice voting, and extra counting rounds happen only if no candidate tops 50% of first choices, WGME has explained.
US midterms: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Who is running in the Maine Senate race?
Two people from the same corner of the state are on top of the ticket. Susan Collins, a Republican from Caribou in Aroostook County, was first elected in 1996 and is seeking a sixth term. She chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, which writes federal spending bills.
Troy Jackson, also from Aroostook County, is a former logger who led the Maine Senate as its president. Democrats picked him at a party convention on July 25. That happened because their primary winner, Graham Platner, left the race in July after allegations that he denied. As a result, Jackson has had roughly three months to introduce himself statewide.
What do the latest Maine Senate polls show?
In short, nobody has a clear lead. Every major poll this month has the gap at four points or less, and most fall within the margin of error. The table below lists recent surveys tracked by RealClearPolling.
| Pollster | Field dates | Jackson (D) | Collins (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marist | Oct 22–25 | 49% | 47% |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 21–23 | 47% | 47% |
| Fox News | Oct 16–20 | 49% | 49% |
| Suffolk University | Oct 8–11 | 49% | 47% |
| Washington Post | Sep 30–Oct 5 | 50% | 46% |
RealClearPolling's average, built from polls taken between September 23 and October 25, puts Jackson ahead by 1.2 points. Meanwhile, the Decision Desk HQ model on our midterm forecast page still lists Maine as a toss-up, giving the Democrat a 52% chance. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball also call it a toss-up, Fox News reported.
There is a caution for both sides here. In 2020, Collins trailed in most public polls and then won by 8.6 points, Newsweek recalled. However, a different electorate and a different opponent mean that history does not settle anything this year.
What are Collins and Jackson campaigning on?
Collins is running on experience and what it brings home. She points to her Appropriations role and says federal money for Maine, such as $46 million for police and sheriff's equipment, depends on seniority. A first-term Jackson, she warned, would rank "100 in seniority," according to Fox News. She also says she has broken with President Trump on tariffs and the trade dispute with Canada, and that she opposed Medicaid cuts in his tax-and-spending law.
Jackson is running on costs and on Collins's record. He argues she has not used her power to bring down energy, food and housing bills. His campaign says she votes with Trump 96% of the time, a figure Collins disputes by citing a study that found lower support. He also points to Collins's support for putting Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. "Would you trust her to pick the next Supreme Court justice?" he asked, Newsweek reported.
Trade policy entered the race again on October 23. The administration announced a seafood plan aimed at Maine's lobster industry and lifted some tariffs on Canadian goods that Maine producers use, Newsweek reported. Collins said she had asked for that relief. In contrast, Democrats, including Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, described the timing as an attempt to help her campaign.
How does ranked-choice voting work in the Maine Senate race?
Maine uses ranked-choice voting in general elections for the US Senate and House. Voters can rank candidates in order of preference. If nobody wins more than 50% of first choices, the last-place candidate is dropped and those ballots move to each voter's next choice, as WGME has laid out.
That process repeats until one candidate has a majority. Because these extra rounds are tallied centrally in Augusta, a close result could take days rather than hours. If a candidate clears 50% in the first count, however, no further rounds are needed.
Why does the Maine Senate race matter for control?
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, counting two independents who caucus with Democrats. So Democrats must flip four more seats than they lose to win a majority, because a 50–50 split would leave the vice president's tie-breaking vote with Republicans. Maine is the only Republican seat this year in a state Harris carried, so it sits near the top of Democrats' target list. For Republicans, holding it would make that four-seat gain much harder to reach. Our explainer on the Texas Senate contest covers another seat on the same short list.
How to watch election night live
Polls in Maine close at 8 p.m. ET (01:00 GMT, 02:00 CET) on November 3; our poll closing times guide in the Elections section has the full timetable. For the main US networks and free streams, start with how to watch the midterm results live, or follow the C-SPAN live stream and the NewsNation live stream. Readers in Britain and Europe can use our guide to watching the US midterms from the UK and Europe.
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Frequently asked questions
Who is leading the Maine Senate race right now?
No one clearly. Late-October polls range from a tie to a two-point Jackson lead, and forecasters rate the contest a toss-up. Remember that forecasts are probabilities, not results.
Why is Graham Platner not on the ballot?
Platner won the Democratic primary in June but withdrew in July after allegations that he denied. The state party then nominated Troy Jackson at a convention on July 25, Ballotpedia reported.
When will the Maine Senate race be called?
If one candidate wins a clear majority, it could be called on election night or the next day. Otherwise, a ranked-choice count in Augusta could add several days. Follow every update in our Elections coverage.
