The latest 2026 midterm election forecast from Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 79% chance of winning the House (October 26 update) and a 57% chance of winning the Senate (October 26 update). Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. The tracker below is refreshed every day, and on election night it switches from forecasts to called races.
Key facts (as of October 2026)
- All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
- Republicans go into the vote holding the House 218–214 (with one independent and two vacancies) and the Senate 53–47.
- Decision Desk HQ’s model projects about 238 House seats and 51 Senate seats (both October 26) for Democrats.
US midterms: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
What does the midterm election forecast say today?
In short, the models agree on the House and disagree on how close the Senate is. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) runs thousands of simulated elections. In its October 26 House update, Democrats won the House in 79% of them. Its Senate page, updated October 26, put the Democratic chance at 57%, up from 56% a day earlier.
The October 25 run also split out the four ways Congress could land. Democrats take both chambers in 55% of simulations. A Democratic House with a Republican Senate comes up 24% of the time, and Republicans keep both in 19%. A Republican House with a Democratic Senate is the rarest result, at 2%.
Other forecasters point the same way, though with different confidence. For example, Silver Bulletin's FLIPR model gave Democrats a 93.1% House chance and a 74.8% Senate chance on October 8, according to Newsweek. Meanwhile, a special forecasting issue of the political science journal PS found every model picking Democrats for the House, while its Senate calls were split.
Which Senate races could decide control?
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. That is because a 50–50 Senate would be broken by Vice President JD Vance, a Republican. So the fight comes down to a short list of states.
| State | DDHQ rating (Oct 26, 2026) | Favorite's win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Maine | Toss-up | 52% |
| Iowa | Toss-up | 55% |
| Ohio (special election) | Toss-up | 56% |
| Texas | Toss-up | 56% |
| Alaska | Lean Democratic | 61% |
| Kansas | Lean Republican | 65% |
| Michigan | Lean Democratic | 67% |
| South Carolina | Lean Republican | 67% |
| Nebraska | Lean Republican | 73% |
Several of these races feature well-known names. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is defending her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson, and in Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.
Which House races are closest?
DDHQ's tightest House contests on October 25 were Ohio's 7th district, Texas's 15th, Iowa's 2nd, Maine's 2nd, Pennsylvania's 1st and North Carolina's 11th. In each one, the favorite's chance sat between 50% and 56%, which is close to a coin flip.
New maps also matter this year. Texas and Missouri redrew their districts mid-decade, and the Cook Political Report estimated the changes would give Republicans a net gain of about four seats, as Northeastern University reported.
How should you read a midterm election forecast?
A forecast is a probability, not a prediction of the final score. A 79% chance for one party means the other side still wins in roughly one simulation out of five. Also, polls can miss in the same direction across many states at once, which is why models show wide seat ranges.
So treat the bars as a snapshot of the evidence today. They move as new polls, fundraising reports and expert ratings arrive.
When will results come in?
The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern on November 3, in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. That is 11 p.m. in London and midnight in Paris and Berlin. Most states close between 7 and 9 p.m. Eastern, and the last polls in Alaska and Hawaii close around midnight Eastern.
However, close races can take days. States that count many mail ballots after Election Day report slowly. In addition, Maine and Alaska use ranked-choice voting, which adds extra counting rounds if no candidate wins a majority at first.
How can you watch election night live?
Every major US network runs live coverage from early evening Eastern time. Our guide to watching the midterm results live compares the networks and free streams. If you are in Britain or Europe, see how to follow the midterms from the UK and Europe.
For uninterrupted floor and results coverage, try the C-SPAN live stream. You can also compare CNN's live options, Fox News streaming and the NewsNation stream. More explainers are in our Elections section.
Coming soon: the NewsLive streaming app. We're building one subscription for live international news on Android, Roku, Fire TV and desktop. The service is under development — follow NewsLive for launch updates.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the House in 2026?
Democrats are favored. DDHQ put their chance at 79% on October 26, 2026, with about 238 projected seats against the 218 needed.
Who is favored to win the Senate?
It is close. DDHQ gave Democrats a 57% chance on October 26, 2026, and four states are rated toss-ups: Maine, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
How often is this midterm election forecast updated?
We refresh the numbers once a day until Election Day. Then, on election night and the days after, the tracker switches to races called by major decision desks.
What happens if the Senate ends up 50–50?
The vice president breaks ties. Because JD Vance is a Republican, a 50–50 split would leave Republicans in control.
More election coverage
- Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. Paxton explained
- Poll closing times by state, in ET, GMT, CET and PKT
- Early voting in the 2026 midterms: the numbers so far
- Why the US midterms matter for Europe
- Maine Senate race: Collins vs. Jackson, one week out
- Generic ballot polls: what the national lead means
- When will we know the midterm results?
- US midterms and markets: what UK and European investors watch