The Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is one of the closest contests in the country, with Election Day on November 3. Recent polls show the two within a few points, and Decision Desk HQ rates it a toss-up. Here is who is running, what the numbers say and why it matters.
Key facts (as of October 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ’s model gave Talarico a 56% chance and Paxton 44% on October 26, 2026, and rates the race a toss-up.
- A University of Houston Hobby School poll of 2,000 likely voters (October 10–14) had Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%.
- Federal Election Commission pre-general reports show Talarico raised about $146.3 million and Paxton about $22.9 million through mid-October.
US midterms: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Who is running in the Texas Senate race?
The seat belongs to Republican John Cornyn, who did not make it past his own party's runoff. Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, beat him in the Republican runoff in late May after President Trump endorsed Paxton a week before the vote. Paxton told supporters on runoff night, "tonight, we just made history," according to Gray DC.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico won his party's March 3 primary outright, defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot, and some polls include him.
Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won his last term in 1988. So a Talarico win would be a flip, while a Paxton win would keep a seat Republicans have held for decades.
What are the candidates campaigning on?
Both men are talking about the cost of living, but they offer different answers. Paxton has pitched a package of family tax breaks. It includes a doubled Child Tax Credit, bigger deductions for medical costs and a deduction for first-time homebuyers, as The Dallas Morning News reported in August. "We want to make it easier for you to take care of your children," Paxton told a crowd.
Talarico also backs a larger Child Tax Credit. However, his plan leans on higher taxes for billionaires and corporations, a higher minimum wage and a public health insurance option. His campaign has dismissed Paxton's affordability push, pointing to Paxton's own wealth.
Religion and character have also come up. Talarico has called backers of a Texas law putting the Ten Commandments in classrooms "Christian nationalists," Texas Public Radio reported. Paxton's campaign, in turn, has accused Talarico of hostility toward Christianity, including in an ad that used an AI-generated image of him.
What do the Texas Senate race polls show?
In short, it is tight. Most recent surveys put the gap inside the margin of error, so neither candidate has a clear lead.
| Source | Date | Talarico (D) | Paxton (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston Hobby School poll (2,000 likely voters, ±2.9 points) | Oct 10–14 | 48% | 46% |
| Fox News poll, via FOX Local's tracker | Released Oct 22 | 49% | 49% |
| Decision Desk HQ forecast (win chance, not vote share) | Oct 26 | 56% | 44% |
The Hobby School poll also found independents breaking toward Talarico, 60% to 32%. Still, its sample was 42% Republican and 31% Democratic, which reflects the state's lean. Decision Desk HQ's model blends polls, fundamentals and prediction markets, and it projected a margin of about one point for Talarico. Remember that a forecast is a probability, not a result.
How much money is in this race?
The spending gap is large on the candidate side. According to Federal Election Commission pre-general reports summarized by Decision Desk HQ, Talarico had raised about $146.3 million and spent about $136.4 million by October 14. Paxton had raised about $22.9 million and spent about $17.6 million.
Outside groups tell a different story, though. Those same filings show roughly $26.9 million in outside spending against Paxton and about $1.3 million against Talarico. Super PAC money often arrives late, so these totals will keep climbing until November 3.
Why does the Texas Senate race matter for control?
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. A 50–50 chamber would be broken by Vice President JD Vance, a Republican. Texas is one of four toss-ups in Decision Desk HQ's ratings, alongside Maine, Iowa and Ohio. For that reason, it could decide which party runs the Senate in 2027. If neither side reaches 51, our explainer on how a tied Senate works sets out what happens next.
Early voting in Texas runs from October 19 to October 30, and turnout has been heavy in big counties such as Harris. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 8 p.m. Eastern for most of the state. Our midterm election forecast tracker shows the latest Senate and House odds.
How to watch election night live
Every major network will carry results from early evening Eastern time. Our guide to watching the midterm results live compares the options. For gavel-to-gavel coverage without commentary, try the C-SPAN live stream. You can also check how to stream CNN or how to stream Fox News. Readers in Britain and Europe can follow our guide to watching the US midterms from the UK and Europe.
See also: the toss-up in Maine between Collins and Jackson.
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Frequently asked questions
Who is leading the Texas Senate race?
No one clearly. The latest polls show Talarico ahead by two points or the race tied. Decision Desk HQ gave Talarico a 56% chance on October 26, 2026.
When will the Texas Senate race be called?
That depends on the margin. A lopsided race can be called soon after polls close, but one this close could take until the next morning or longer. Calls come from news decision desks, not the state.
Why is Senator John Cornyn not on the ballot?
He lost the Republican runoff to Ken Paxton in May 2026. Cornyn said he would serve out the rest of his term, which ends in January.
More explainers are in our Elections section.
Sources
- Decision Desk HQ: Texas Senate forecast and FEC data
- FOX 7 Austin: University of Houston poll
- FOX Local: Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker
- The Dallas Morning News (via CPA Practice Advisor): Paxton's family tax plan
- Gray DC (WNEM): Paxton defeats Cornyn in runoff
- Texas Public Radio: voters weigh in on the race
