The Ohio Senate race pits Republican Senator Jon Husted against former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in a special election for the seat JD Vance gave up to become vice president. With Election Day on November 3, recent polls give Brown a small lead, and forecasters still call the contest a toss-up.
Key facts (as of October 2026)
- RealClearPolling’s average of polls taken from September 22 to October 26 had Brown at 48.1% and Husted at 44.8%.
- Decision Desk HQ’s model gave Brown a 55% chance of winning on October 28 and rated the seat a toss-up.
- AdImpact told 13abc on October 27 that ad spending and bookings in the race had passed $500 million.
US midterms: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Who is running in the Ohio Senate race?
Two familiar names lead the ballot. Jon Husted, a Republican, was appointed to the seat by Governor Mike DeWine in January 2025, after Vance resigned to become vice president. Before that, he served as Ohio's secretary of state from 2011 and as lieutenant governor from 2019 to 2025.
Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Mansfield, spent 18 years in the Senate, from 2007 to 2025, and chaired its Banking Committee. Before that, he was Ohio's secretary of state and a member of the US House. In 2024, he lost his own seat to Republican Bernie Moreno.
Two smaller candidates are also on the ballot: Libertarian Bill Redpath, a former chair of his party's national committee, and independent Greg Levy.
Why is there a special election in Ohio this year?
In Ohio, an appointed senator serves only until voters can choose a successor at a statewide general election. As a result, this year's winner serves the rest of the term Vance won in 2022, and the seat comes up again in 2028, 13abc noted.
What do the latest Ohio Senate race polls show?
Most recent surveys show Brown ahead by three to five points, though not all of them. Here are the six newest polls listed by RealClearPolling as of late October.
| Pollster | Dates (2026) | Brown | Husted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | Oct 21–26 | 47% | 44% |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 21–22 | 47% | 44% |
| Fox News | Oct 15–19 | 52% | 47% |
| Marist (likely voters) | Oct 15–18 | 48% | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports | Oct 12–14 | 47% | 49% |
| Cook Political Report | Oct 9–13 | 49% | 43% |
Several of these leads sit inside the margin of error. For example, Marist's survey of likely voters had an error margin of 4.5 points. That poll also found independents breaking toward Brown, 50% to 35%. Meanwhile, Rasmussen's mid-October poll had Husted in front, which shows why forecasters still treat the race as open.
Decision Desk HQ's model, updated October 28, gave Brown a 55% chance and Husted a 45% chance. Remember that a forecast is a probability, not a result.
What are Husted and Brown campaigning on?
Both campaigns talk about prices, but they point the blame in opposite directions.
Brown argues that everyday costs have climbed too far and promises to bring down what families pay for health care, power and groceries, The Post in Athens reported. He also backs a ban on stock trading by members of Congress. Meanwhile, his campaign argues that Husted helped bring 226 data centers to Ohio through $2.5 billion in tax deals, FOX19 reported. It also ties his votes on the conflict with Iran to higher gas and diesel prices.
Husted, for his part, presents himself as a pro-business senator focused on a strong economy, and local Republicans point to tax cuts such as no tax on tips, according to The Post. On data centers, he says they should be built only where communities want them. He also introduced a bill in July to make them cover their own power costs, so that families don't see higher electric bills, FOX19 reported. Then there is Brown's long voting record, which Husted's campaign targets, including votes on benefits for immigrants.
How much money is going into the Ohio Senate race?
It is one of the most expensive contests in US history. AdImpact told 13abc on October 27 that more than $500 million had been spent or booked on ads. By that count, it ranks third among all races other than presidential ones.
On the fundraising side, the two candidates had raised more than $80 million combined, FOX19 reported from Federal Election Commission filings. Brown accounted for more than $61.6 million of that, and Husted for more than $19.2 million. However, outside groups pay for much of the advertising, so the candidates' own totals are only part of the picture.
Why does the Ohio Senate race matter for control of the Senate?
Republicans hold 53 seats now, so Democrats need a net gain of four to reach a majority. Ohio is one of four Republican-held toss-ups on Decision Desk HQ's list, along with Iowa, Maine and Texas. In short, Democrats likely need Ohio to get there, while Republicans can protect their majority by holding it.
Ohio voters also pick a governor on the same ballot. Marist's October poll had Democrat Amy Acton at 50% and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy at 43% among likely voters. Early turnout is running high, too: more than 485,000 in-person early ballots had been cast by October 22, FOX19 reported, citing the secretary of state's office.
How to watch election night live
Polls in Ohio close at 7:30 p.m. ET, which is 00:30 GMT and 01:30 CET on November 4. Our guide to when polls close in every state has the full timetable. For the main US networks and free options, start with how to watch the midterm results live, or follow the C-SPAN live stream and the Fox News live stream. Readers in Britain and Europe can use our guide to watching the US midterms from the UK and Europe.
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Frequently asked questions
Who is ahead in the Ohio Senate race?
Brown leads most late-October polls by three to five points, and RealClearPolling's average had him up 3.3 points. Still, one mid-October poll showed Husted ahead, and Decision Desk HQ rates the seat a toss-up.
When do polls close in Ohio?
Voting runs from 6:30 a.m. until 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 3. Absentee ballots must reach county boards of elections by 7:30 p.m. that day, FOX19 reported.
Why is Ohio holding a Senate special election?
JD Vance left the Senate in January 2025 to become vice president. Husted was appointed to fill the seat until this election, and the winner serves the rest of the term, which ends in January 2029. See how it fits the national picture on our midterm election forecast page, and find more races in our Elections coverage.
Sources
- RealClearPolling: Ohio Senate special election, Husted vs. Brown
- Marist Poll: midterm elections in Ohio, October 2026
- Decision Desk HQ: 2026 Senate forecast
- FOX19: Ohio's Senate race among the most competitive and expensive
- The Post (Athens, Ohio): Ohio hosts close US Senate race
- 13abc: Ohio Senate race passes half a billion dollars in ads
