The US midterms matter for Europe because Congress controls money for Ukraine, can push back on trade and war powers, and shapes how far the White House can go abroad. With Election Day on November 3, analysts on both sides of the Atlantic are asking what a new Congress would change for Europe, and what it would not.
Key facts (as of October 2026)
- All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot; Republicans currently hold the Senate 53–47.
- The House passed the bipartisan Ukraine Support Act in June, with over $1 billion in direct aid and up to $8 billion in loans, but the Senate has not acted, according to the German Marshall Fund.
- NATO allies agreed at The Hague in 2025 to spend 5% of GDP on defense and security by 2035, according to NATO.
US midterms: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Why do the US midterms matter for Europe?
Congress writes the budget, approves treaties and can limit a president through law and oversight. So the party that runs each chamber for the last two years of President Trump's term will shape US policy on Ukraine, NATO and trade. Bruce Stokes of the German Marshall Fund put it simply: "Americans will vote while their allies must live with the results."
Forecasters currently favor Democrats to win the House, while the Senate is closer. Our election forecast tracker has the latest odds.
What could the US midterms change for Ukraine?
Ukraine is where a change in Congress could matter most. According to GMF, the US has provided no new assistance to Kyiv since Trump's second term began. The House passed the Ukraine Support Act in June after a discharge petition forced a vote, but the Senate has not taken it up.
Democrats say they would move faster. Rep. Jim Himes told the Warsaw Security Forum on October 13 that a Democratic Congress could cut the time for aid packages from about nine months to weeks, EU Perspectives reported. Even so, Breaking Defense's Aaron Mehta noted that a divided Congress and unfinished spending bills could slow that promise.
Many Republicans see it differently. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast said in May he did not expect another large Ukraine spending package, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. He supports intelligence sharing, weapons sales and tougher sanctions on Russia, and he argued that "Europe needs to protect their own backyard."
What about NATO and defense spending?
NATO itself is unlikely to be on the ballot, but American opinion about it has shifted. GMF cited polling showing 59% of Americans now say NATO membership benefits the US, down from 71% in 2021. Most of that drop came from Republicans, whose support fell from 55% to 38%.
Meanwhile, Europe is spending more. Under the 2025 Hague pledge, allies aim for at least 3.5% of GDP on core defense plus up to 1.5% on related security, NATO says. NATO figures show European allies and Canada spent 1.4% of GDP on defense in 2014, against 2.3% last year. Still, Himes said he doubted Europe would reach 5–6% of GDP.
If Republicans keep both chambers, Stokes expects little congressional pushback on a more transactional approach to the alliance. If Democrats win, he argued, they could block a US withdrawal from NATO but not other White House demands on Europe.
Will the US midterms change tariffs and trade with Europe?
Probably not much, according to the analysts we reviewed. Voters are split along party lines: about seven in 10 Republicans back the president's tariffs, and about seven in 10 Democrats oppose them, GMF reported. However, a Democratic House could not by itself repeal trade laws without the Senate and the president.
There is also a legal backdrop. The European Council on Foreign Relations pointed to a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that emergency powers did not give the president authority to set tariffs. Yet ECFR's Nevada Joan Lee argued that the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, known as the Graham act, hands the president wide room to set tariffs again. She warned that "Europeans should not assume that Democrats can rein in Trump's foreign policy."
Markets are a quieter worry. Stokes pointed out that a divided Washington could leave the European Central Bank to handle any future financial shock largely on its own.
How to watch election night live
In the UK, the first polls close at 23:00 GMT on November 3, and the big Senate states report after midnight. Our guide to following the US midterms from the UK and Europe covers the channels and timings. For the full list of US networks, see how to watch the midterm results live. You can also follow the C-SPAN live stream or BBC News live overnight.
See also: what the vote could mean for shares, the dollar and gilts.
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Frequently asked questions
Can Congress stop aid to Ukraine or force it?
Congress can pass funding, but the president must sign the bill and the administration must spend it. GMF noted that past refusals to spend approved funds remain a risk.
Does the president need Congress to leave NATO?
Analysts at GMF said a Democratic Congress could block a US withdrawal from NATO.
What time are the US midterm results in Europe?
The first polls close at midnight in Paris and Berlin (CET), and most states close by 03:00 CET on November 4. Close races can take days to call. More explainers are in our Elections section.
Sources
- German Marshall Fund: More Turbulence Ahead
- European Council on Foreign Relations: A Democratic win isn't enough
- EU Perspectives: Himes at the Warsaw Security Forum
- Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Mast on Ukraine aid
- Breaking Defense: why the midterms matter for Ukraine aid
- NATO: defense expenditures and the 5% commitment
