The Iowa Senate race is one of the closest contests in the country, with Election Day on November 3. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are fighting for an open seat, and October polls have swung between them by a few points either way.
Key facts (as of October 2026)
- The seat is open because Republican Sen. Joni Ernst chose not to run for a third term.
- Decision Desk HQ’s model rates Iowa a toss-up and gives Republicans a 54% chance of holding it (updated October 28).
- A Marist poll of likely voters taken October 8–11 had Turek at 48% and Hinson at 45%, inside its margin of error.
Democrats win control of the House and Senate, networks project
Who is running in the Iowa Senate race?
Ashley Hinson has represented Iowa's 2nd Congressional District since 2021. She won the June 2 Republican primary with about 74% of the vote. President Trump endorsed her, and so did Ernst and Gov. Kim Reynolds.
Josh Turek has served in the Iowa House since 2023 and is a two-time Paralympian. He took the Democratic nomination with about 63% after a primary against fellow state lawmaker Zach Wahls. A Libertarian candidate is also on the ballot.
Republicans have won this seat in each of the last two cycles. In 2020, Ernst beat Democrat Theresa Greenfield by roughly six and a half points. That history explains why so many observers expected a safer race than the one on offer now.
What are Hinson and Turek campaigning on?
Both candidates have centered their pitch on prices, though they offer different answers. The two debates, on Iowa PBS on October 7 and on WHO 13 in Des Moines on October 13, showed where they split.
| Issue | Ashley Hinson (R) | Josh Turek (D) |
|---|---|---|
| Iran war | Opposed a Democratic-backed resolution to limit the president's war powers; wants a fast, successful end | Says the war has to end and wants a return to diplomacy |
| Immigration | Calls border security a defining issue and says Turek is too liberal on it | Backed a 2024 state bill on removing some immigrants who re-enter illegally; supports earned citizenship for some |
| Tariffs | Said she would review a plan to limit presidential tariff power before deciding | Says tariff power should sit mainly with Congress |
| Health and retirement | Says many Iowans feel priced out and costs must come down | Pledges to protect Social Security and Medicare and lower drug prices |
| Relationship with Trump | An ally when it helps Iowa; broke with him over buying Russian diesel | Criticizes Hinson's support for Trump-backed trade measures |
Source: our summary of debate coverage by Iowa Public Radio and Newsweek.
The attacks have been personal as well as political. Hinson has pointed to Turek's attendance, since Iowa Public Radio reported he missed 58% of floor votes in the last session. Turek answered that he is one of the most bipartisan lawmakers in Des Moines. He also questioned how Hinson's wealth grew in Congress; she said the couple sold their stocks in 2021 and that the gain came from the sale of her husband's business.
What do Iowa Senate race polls show?
The short answer is a tie within the margin of error. Recent public polls have pointed in both directions, so no single survey settles it.
| Poll (field dates) | Hinson (R) | Turek (D) |
|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University (Oct 1–4) | 43.6% | 48% |
| Emerson College (Oct 5–6) | 47% | 45% |
| YouGov (Oct 6–12) | Turek ahead by 1 point | |
| Marist (Oct 8–11) | 45% | 48% |
| DDHQ polling average (Oct 23) | 45.8% | 45.6% |
Poll figures as reported by Marist, Newsweek and Decision Desk HQ.
Marist also found that 59% of likely voters expect Hinson to win, even while Turek led its head-to-head question. In the same survey, 44% of registered voters approved of Trump's job performance and 53% disapproved.
Forecasts and markets lean slightly the other way. Decision Desk HQ's model gives Republicans a 54% chance in Iowa, the narrowest of its four Senate toss-ups. On Kalshi, traders priced Turek at about 48% on the morning of October 29, according to the DefiRate odds tracker. These are probabilities, not results.
Why does the Iowa Senate race matter for control?
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47 today, counting the independents who caucus with Democrats. Because Vice President JD Vance would break a 50–50 tie, Democrats must pick up four seats, net, to take the majority. Our guide to a 50-50 Senate explains the tie-break rules.
Iowa is a Republican-held seat, so it sits near the center of that math. For Republicans, holding it would make the Democratic path much narrower. For Democrats, a win here could offset a loss elsewhere, for example in Maine or Ohio.
Money reflects the stakes. In pre-general reports covering spending through mid-October, Hinson had raised about $26.9 million and Turek about $24.3 million, according to FEC data shown by Decision Desk HQ. Local analyst Dave Price told WOWT that total spending looks set to break Iowa's record for a Senate race. Trump was scheduled to rally in the state on October 22 and again on November 1, Newsweek reported.
See every competitive contest, updated daily, on our midterm election forecast page.
How to watch election night live
Iowa's polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern (2 a.m. GMT, 3 a.m. CET), so a close Iowa Senate race may run well past midnight on the East Coast. Our guide to watching midterm results live lists the free and paid options.
For uninterrupted coverage with no commentary, C-SPAN's live stream carries candidate speeches. The NewsNation live stream and CNN will run full results programming. If you are following from Britain or Europe, read how to watch the US midterms in the UK and Europe.
Coming soon: the NewsLive streaming app. We're building one subscription for live international news on Android, Roku, Fire TV and desktop. The service is under development. See what the NewsLive app will offer and join the early-access list.
Frequently asked questions
Who is leading the Iowa Senate race?
Nobody has a clear lead. Decision Desk HQ's polling average had Hinson ahead by 0.2 points on October 23, while Marist's October survey had Turek up by three. Both are within the polls' margins of error.
Why is Joni Ernst not running?
Ernst announced in September 2025 that she would not seek a third term. That left the seat open for the first time since she won it in 2014.
When will the Iowa Senate race be called?
Polls close at 9 p.m. ET. A close margin could keep networks from calling it on election night, so check our Elections coverage for updates as counting continues.
