The Alaska Senate race is one of the tightest contests of the 2026 midterms, with Election Day on November 3. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term against Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman. Recent polls show a near-tie, and a late legal fight over a second candidate named Dan Sullivan has pulled the state into the national spotlight.
Key facts (as of November 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ’s model gave Peltola a 60% chance of winning on October 31, 2026, and rates the seat a toss-up.
- RealClearPolling’s average of polls taken October 8–29 had Peltola on 49.4% and Sullivan on 48.2%.
- If no candidate passes 50%, Alaska runs its ranked-choice rounds on November 18, according to Alaska Public Media.
Democrats win control of the House and Senate, networks project
Who is running in the Alaska Senate race?
Four candidates made the November ballot. The senator appears as "Dan S. Sullivan," marked Republican and incumbent. His main rival is Peltola, who formerly held Alaska's single, statewide House seat. The other two are Republican Gerald Heikes, a drywall contractor, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher from Petersburg with no party label, as AARP's polling write-up lists them.
Alaska also counts votes its own way. Voters rank the four finalists from an open primary. If nobody wins more than half of first choices, the last-place name drops out and those ballots move to each voter's next pick, until someone has a majority. Our ranked choice voting explainer walks through an example.
Sullivan took the seat from Democrat Mark Begich in 2014, and Donald Trump carried Alaska by about 13 points in 2024, RealClearPolling notes. Peltola, however, has won statewide before.
What are the two main candidates campaigning on?
Both sides have leaned hard on living costs, because food and fuel reach much of Alaska over long supply lines. In AARP's September poll, voters aged 50 and over ranked Social Security, everyday prices and health costs as their top issues. Then, at their October 15 debate on Alaska Public Media, the pair clashed over energy and affordability.
Sullivan used the debate to question Peltola's House record, saying she had opposed a military pay raise. Peltola replied that the claim was wrong and that she had backed the raise. On the trail, she has also criticized Sullivan's support for the war in Iran, the Associated Press reported.
What do the latest Alaska Senate race polls say?
They say it is close. The recent surveys listed by RealClearPolling are all within a few points, and one has Sullivan narrowly ahead.
| Poll (as listed by RealClearPolling) | Field dates | Peltola (D) | Sullivan (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 26–29 | 51% | 49% |
| Rasmussen Reports | Oct 12–15 | 47% | 48% |
| Data for Progress | Oct 8–16 | 51% | 49% |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 9–10 | 50% | 48% |
| RealClearPolling average | Oct 8–29 | 49.4% | 48.2% |
Age could matter. For example, AARP's September survey had Peltola ahead overall, yet voters 50 and older backed Sullivan 54% to 46% in the final round. Even so, RealClearPolling cautions that Alaska polling has a weak track record.
Forecast models put Peltola slightly in front. Decision Desk HQ's simulation gave her a 60% chance on October 31, which still means Sullivan wins in about four runs out of ten. Remember that these are probabilities, not results. The full midterm election forecast shows how Alaska fits with the other close states.
What is the dispute over the second Dan Sullivan?
Earlier in 2026, a state elections official found Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. ineligible for the primary, saying his filing aimed to mislead. The Alaska Supreme Court later ruled he could run, AP reported. He denies any contact with the Peltola team and rejects the idea that Democrats put him up to it.
In late October, The New York Times reported that Peltola's team appeared to have helped recruit him, citing interviews, messages and documents. After that, Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy ordered a state inquiry, and President Trump said the people involved should be prosecuted. On October 30, Alaska's US Attorney, Michael Heyman, confirmed a federal criminal investigation but named no targets or possible charges, according to AP.
The Justice Department is also suing to block certification if the senator loses, and it has asked a judge to set aside ballots that rank Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. State lawyers say that would break ballot secrecy and that the ballot already tells the two men apart. Peltola denies any role: "I am not interested in tricking voters," she said, as AP reported. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee also denies involvement. Nobody has been charged.
When will the Alaska Senate race be called?
Probably not on election night, unless someone tops 50% on first choices. Polls close at 8 p.m. Alaska time, which is midnight Eastern, 5 a.m. in London, 6 a.m. in Paris and Berlin, and 10 a.m. in Pakistan on November 4. State officials plan to post the first batch of results between 8:45 and 9 p.m. local time.
After that, the timetable stretches out. Any ranked-choice rounds are counted on November 18, and the state aims to certify results on November 25, Alaska Public Media reported. The winner is due to be sworn in on January 3, 2027.
So the seat could stay undecided for weeks. That matters because Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority.
How to watch election night live
Expect Alaska's first numbers after midnight Eastern. Our guide to watching the midterm results live compares the networks and free streams. For uninterrupted, low-commentary coverage, try the C-SPAN live stream, or check how to get the NewsNation live stream.
In Britain or Europe, Alaska's results land around Wednesday breakfast. See following the US midterms from the UK and Europe, and find more explainers in our Elections section.
Coming soon: the NewsLive streaming app. We're building one subscription for live international news on Android, Roku, Fire TV and desktop. The service is under development. See what the NewsLive app will offer and join the early-access list.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored in the Alaska Senate race?
Neither candidate has a clear lead. Decision Desk HQ gave Peltola a 60% chance on October 31, 2026, while polls show a gap of one or two points either way.
Why are there two Dan Sullivans on the ballot?
A retired teacher, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., qualified after the Alaska Supreme Court ruled he could run. The ballot lists the senator as "Dan S. Sullivan," Republican and incumbent, and the other man with no party.
Why does the Alaska Senate race matter for control?
Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats need to gain four, so Alaska is a seat Democrats are targeting and Republicans need to keep.
Sources
- Decision Desk HQ: 2026 Senate forecast and ratings
- RealClearPolling: Alaska Senate polls
- AARP: Alaska election poll (September 2026)
- Alaska Public Media: What to know about Alaska's general election
- Alaska Public Media: Sullivan and Peltola debate
- AP via PBS News: Governor orders probe of Peltola campaign
- AP via KPBS: Justice Department seeks to isolate Alaska ballots
