The Kansas Senate race between Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton is now one of the closest contests in the country, with Election Day on November 3. A state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932 is rated a toss-up, and recent polls show Hamilton slightly ahead.
Key facts (as of October 31, 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ rates Kansas a toss-up, with Marshall narrowly favored at a 53% win chance (October 30 update).
- The RealClearPolitics polling average (September 22 to October 28) has Hamilton at 48.3% and Marshall at 45.7%.
- Kansas polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 8 p.m. ET (01:00 GMT) in most of the state and 9 p.m. ET in the western Mountain-time counties.
Democrats win control of the House and Senate, networks project
Who is running in the Kansas Senate race?
Three names are on the ballot. Roger Marshall, a Republican, won the seat in 2020 by about 11 points and is seeking a second term. Before entering politics he worked as an obstetrician-gynecologist.
Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee, is a United Methodist pastor who led the Church of the Resurrection in the Kansas City suburbs. He has never held elected office and calls himself an "independent-minded Democrat," as FOX4 reported. Libertarian David Graham is also running and drew 4% in a September Emerson College poll.
What do the latest Kansas Senate race polls show?
Most October surveys give Hamilton a small edge, although a few have Marshall ahead. The gaps in several polls sit close to the margin of error, so a lead of two or three points could easily disappear.
| Poll (field dates, 2026) | Hamilton (D) | Marshall (R) |
|---|---|---|
| Emerson College, Oct 26–28 | 50% | 47% |
| Washington Post, Oct 22–26 | 54% | 44% |
| CNN, Oct 20–26 | 49% | 45% |
| InsiderAdvantage, Oct 13–14 | 47% | 48% |
| RCP average, Sept 22–Oct 28 | 48.3% | 45.7% |
Source: poll listings compiled by RealClearPolitics, checked October 31. Forecasters read these numbers in different ways. For example, Decision Desk HQ blends polls with fundamentals such as the state's partisan lean and incumbency, plus prediction markets. As a result, its model still projects a Republican margin of about one point. Meanwhile, Polymarket traders gave Hamilton a 53% chance, according to RealClearPolitics. Remember that all of these are probabilities, not results.
What are Marshall and Hamilton campaigning on?
The economy dominates. In the September Emerson poll, 48% of likely voters named it their top issue, far ahead of healthcare at 14%. Here is where the two main candidates stood at their final debate on October 21, as reported by KCUR and the Kansas News Service.
| Issue | Roger Marshall (R) | Adam Hamilton (D) |
|---|---|---|
| Tariffs | Supports them and says they bring jobs back to the US | Says they are too broad and act like a tax on Kansans |
| Iran war and fuel prices | Wants the war over soon but backs the president's case for it | Wants the US out as soon as possible to bring fuel prices down |
| Social Security | Would remove the cap on income subject to the payroll tax | Would raise the cap but not remove it |
| Healthcare | Says the Affordable Care Act has not made care affordable | Would expand ACA subsidies |
| Border | Credits the Trump administration with a secure border | Also backs strong borders and criticized Biden-era policy |
Each man is also making a broader pitch. Marshall is running as an ally of President Trump, who held a rally near Wichita in October. "Control of the Senate goes through Kansas," Marshall said at the debate. Hamilton, by contrast, is keeping his distance from national Democrats and has said he would not back Chuck Schumer for party leader. The final weeks have also brought sharp ads from both sides, and each campaign says the other's attacks distort its record.
Why is the Kansas Senate race so close this year?
On paper, Kansas should be safe for Republicans. President Trump carried it by about 16 points in 2024, and the state has roughly 900,000 registered Republicans against about 500,000 Democrats, according to the Kansas News Service. Unaffiliated voters outnumber Democrats, though, so both candidates need them.
That is where the race has moved. Emerson found Hamilton leading independents 42% to 27% in September. Money is a factor too: by mid-October, Federal Election Commission filings summarized by Decision Desk HQ showed Hamilton had raised about $19.2 million to Marshall's $7.5 million. Outside groups from both parties have also spent heavily. The Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid Republican to Toss-up in early October, FOX4 reported.
The stakes are national. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, because a 50-50 Senate would go to Republicans on the vice president's tiebreak. So a Kansas upset would make that path much easier, while a Marshall win would force Democrats to find their gains elsewhere. For the full state-by-state picture, see our midterm election forecast tracker.
When will we know who won in Kansas?
Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, according to The Green Papers. Most of Kansas is on Central time, but a few western counties use Mountain time and close an hour later. If the margin is a point or two, a race call may not come on election night.
| Polls close | ET | GMT | CET | PKT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central-time Kansas (most voters) | 8 p.m. Nov 3 | 01:00 Nov 4 | 02:00 Nov 4 | 06:00 Nov 4 |
| Mountain-time counties | 9 p.m. Nov 3 | 02:00 Nov 4 | 03:00 Nov 4 | 07:00 Nov 4 |
How to watch election night live
All the major US networks carry results from early evening Eastern time. Our guide to watching the midterm results live compares the free and paid options. If you want coverage without commentary panels, the C-SPAN live stream is a good choice, and the NewsNation stream is another option. Readers in Britain and Europe can follow our guide to watching the US midterms from the UK and Europe.
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Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Kansas Senate race?
No one clearly. Decision Desk HQ gives Marshall a 53% chance as of October 30, while the RealClearPolitics average shows Hamilton up 2.6 points. Both sources call it a toss-up.
When did Kansas last elect a Democratic senator?
In 1932, when George McGill won, according to RealClearPolitics. Kansas has elected only Republicans to the Senate since 1938.
Could the Kansas Senate race decide control of the Senate?
It could. Republicans hold 53 seats now, so Democrats need four net gains. Kansas is one of six toss-ups on Decision Desk HQ's map, alongside Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, Maine and Texas. More explainers are in our Elections section.
